Important dates:
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20 | 12311 | 55356 | 448 | 113 | 293 |
| Aug 21 | 12344 | 55419 | 449 | 113 | 281 |
| Aug 22 | 12381 | 55492 | 442 | 113 | 283 |
| Aug 23 | 12381 | 55531 | 450 | 113 | 245 |
| Aug 24 | 12423 | 55589 | 454 | 114 | 253 |
| Aug 25 | 12475 | 55664 | 456 | 114 | 284 |
| Aug 26 | 12526 | 55774 | 459 | 114 | 335 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.3 | 6% | 20 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 3.0 | 9% | 30 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 6.9 | 20% | 67 | 0.32% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 7.7 | 21.8% | 73 | 0.54% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 3.1 | 9.9% | 33 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 5.3 | 16.1% | 54 | 0.43% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 3.4 | 9% | 30 | 0.26% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.4 | 8.4% | 28 | 0.27% |
| All ages | 51 | 35.1 | 100% | 335 | 0.32% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20 | 7974 | 32436 | 330 | 97 | 204 |
| Aug 21 | 7999 | 32466 | 333 | 97 | 199 |
| Aug 22 | 8024 | 32495 | 325 | 97 | 202 |
| Aug 23 | 8044 | 32523 | 333 | 97 | 188 |
| Aug 24 | 8058 | 32576 | 335 | 97 | 186 |
| Aug 25 | 8088 | 32626 | 336 | 98 | 212 |
| Aug 26 | 8117 | 32700 | 337 | 98 | 214 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.7 | 10.3% | 22 | 0.28% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 3.4 | 12.6% | 27 | 0.32% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 3.6 | 13.1% | 28 | 0.39% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 5.0 | 19.6% | 42 | 0.5% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 4.1 | 18.7% | 40 | 0.52% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.4 | 7.9% | 17 | 0.18% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.3 | 10.3% | 22 | 0.26% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.7 | 7.5% | 16 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 29 | 24.3 | 100% | 214 | 0.33% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20 | 6094 | 21767 | 295 | 85 | 121 |
| Aug 21 | 6102 | 21781 | 296 | 85 | 118 |
| Aug 22 | 6116 | 21803 | 289 | 85 | 123 |
| Aug 23 | 6130 | 21812 | 299 | 85 | 116 |
| Aug 24 | 6140 | 21835 | 299 | 85 | 120 |
| Aug 25 | 6163 | 21869 | 302 | 85 | 127 |
| Aug 26 | 6180 | 21905 | 303 | 85 | 137 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 0.9 | 5.1% | 7 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.6 | 12.4% | 17 | 0.31% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.1 | 10.9% | 15 | 0.33% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 2.4 | 17.5% | 24 | 0.44% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 2.7 | 15.3% | 21 | 0.42% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.6 | 16.8% | 23 | 0.34% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 1.7 | 11.7% | 16 | 0.25% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.3 | 10.2% | 14 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 17 | 14.3 | 100% | 137 | 0.3% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20 | 13274 | 62745 | 497 | 92 | 263 |
| Aug 21 | 13311 | 62841 | 497 | 92 | 269 |
| Aug 22 | 13339 | 62915 | 494 | 92 | 274 |
| Aug 23 | 13356 | 62960 | 497 | 92 | 252 |
| Aug 24 | 13425 | 63098 | 501 | 92 | 297 |
| Aug 25 | 13493 | 63238 | 506 | 92 | 355 |
| Aug 26 | 13551 | 63418 | 507 | 92 | 398 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 5.1 | 10.3% | 41 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 7.0 | 14.6% | 58 | 0.35% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 8.7 | 19.3% | 77 | 0.36% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 7.7 | 16.8% | 67 | 0.49% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 6.7 | 15.3% | 61 | 0.45% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 5.1 | 12.6% | 50 | 0.35% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 1.9 | 5% | 20 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.6 | 6% | 24 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 58 | 44.9 | 100% | 398 | 0.34% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20 | 47901 | 378371 | 1710 | 319 | 982 |
| Aug 21 | 48019 | 378939 | 1720 | 319 | 1024 |
| Aug 22 | 48067 | 379182 | 1719 | 319 | 972 |
| Aug 23 | 48142 | 379609 | 1722 | 319 | 890 |
| Aug 24 | 48212 | 380036 | 1706 | 320 | 876 |
| Aug 25 | 48352 | 380607 | 1709 | 320 | 943 |
| Aug 26 | 48467 | 381568 | 1716 | 320 | 962 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 12 | 14.4 | 14.6% | 140 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 17 | 11.3 | 10.9% | 105 | 0.15% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 18.4 | 19.3% | 186 | 0.18% |
| 30-39 | 26 | 17.9 | 18.4% | 177 | 0.23% |
| 40-49 | 21 | 14.0 | 14.7% | 141 | 0.21% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 8.6 | 10.1% | 97 | 0.15% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 7.0 | 6.9% | 66 | 0.12% |
| 70+ | 8 | 5.4 | 5.2% | 50 | 0.1% |
| All ages | 115 | 97.0 | 100% | 962 | 0.18% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20 | 644554 | 3108649 | 34817 | 7516 | 12804 |
| Aug 21 | 645977 | 3113256 | 34913 | 7520 | 12844 |
| Aug 22 | 646711 | 3116501 | 34705 | 7520 | 12181 |
| Aug 23 | 647489 | 3119761 | 34998 | 7521 | 11145 |
| Aug 24 | 649671 | 3122983 | 35103 | 7549 | 12332 |
| Aug 25 | 651341 | 3128030 | 35230 | 7558 | 13383 |
| Aug 26 | 653363 | 3135681 | 35358 | 7570 | 14792 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 162 | 138.7 | 9.6% | 1416 | 0.22% |
| 10-19 | 248 | 187.4 | 12.3% | 1823 | 0.24% |
| 20-29 | 329 | 251.3 | 16.4% | 2433 | 0.32% |
| 30-39 | 348 | 251.0 | 16.6% | 2451 | 0.32% |
| 40-49 | 291 | 202.4 | 13.7% | 2027 | 0.29% |
| 50-59 | 264 | 191.7 | 13.1% | 1938 | 0.24% |
| 60-69 | 201 | 140.4 | 9.9% | 1459 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 179 | 121.7 | 8.4% | 1245 | 0.19% |
| All ages | 2022 | 1484.7 | 100% | 14792 | 0.25% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40.9 | 29.4 | 39.2 | 35.1 | 28.6 | 32.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45.6 | 24.3 | 18.7 | 35.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41.3 | 14.3 | 9.9 | 37.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.1 | 38.1 | 45.1 | 44.9 | 22.3 | 29.5% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.1 | 21.7 | 27.8 | 97 | 82.1 | 15.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32.3 | 30.4 | 42.6 | 1484.7 | 1161.4 | 24.7% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-09-16 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6980"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges